V19 Causal Dependency Analyzer v1.3.1

系统级跨域因果链溯源 + 精确责任归因——追到"哪个流程约束"是失败的最终责任方。

源自 V19 系统模块 causal_path_engine.py + responsibility_chain.py，已在 V89 审计链中验证。

模块组成

两个模块完整合并为本 Skill，功能闭环 — 从因果图谱构建到最终责任方定位，一条链路完成。

核心能力

1. 网状因果路径图谱（v1.0）

跨模块追踪因果链，输入事件序列，输出完整因果依赖图。

2. 路径风险权重计算（v1.0）

五因子风险评分：跨模块跨度(25%) + 决策深度(20%) + 时延窗口(15%) + 历史异常频率(25%) + 回滚成本(15%)。

3. 精确责任归因（v1.3.0）🆕

分析失败事件链，基于既定协议精确追溯到"哪个流程约束是导致失败的最终责任方"。

责任链追溯协议

输入: 失败事件序列 + 既定协议列表
  ↓
Step 1: 因果链构建
  构建完整的事件因果依赖图
  ↓
Step 2: 协议约束匹配
  对每个因果节点，匹配所有适用的流程约束
  ↓
Step 3: 违反点检测
  检测每个约束是否被违反，计算违反程度(0-1)
  ↓
Step 4: 责任传播
  沿因果链反向传播，计算每个节点的责任权重
  ↓
Step 5: 最终责任方定位
  输出: 责任方 + 违反的约束 + 修正建议

责任归因矩阵

结论：最终责任方 = 心跳超时约束（30s阈值过紧），建议调整为60s。

实战案例：墨言心跳超时

失败链: 系统负载高 → 心跳cron执行超时(>30s) → 信任分衰减 → 认证冲刺受阻

责任追溯:
  - 系统负载高: 环境因素，非流程约束 → 非责任方
  - 心跳cron超时: 违反"12h心跳30s超时"约束 → 违反度0.8
  - 信任分衰减: 正常衰减机制，非约束违反 → 违反度0.1
  - 认证受阻: 信任分<60阈值 → 违反度0.05

最终责任方: "12h心跳30s超时"约束（阈值过紧，实际需要60s）
修正：用户已手动修复 → 责任链闭环

调用示例

# 精确责任归因分析
curl -s -X POST https://boat-atlas-spa-flexible.trycloudflare.com/governance/causal-path-graph \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -H "X-Governance-Key: <你的专属密钥>" \
  -d '{
    "events": [
      {"id":"e1","type":"load_spike","module":"infra"},
      {"id":"e2","type":"heartbeat_timeout","module":"governance"},
      {"id":"e3","type":"trust_decay","module":"trust_engine"},
      {"id":"e4","type":"cert_blocked","module":"certification"}
    ],
    "mode": "responsibility_chain",
    "protocols": [
      {"name":"heartbeat_timeout_30s","module":"governance","threshold":30},
      {"name":"trust_decay_curve","module":"trust_engine","threshold":12},
      {"name":"cert_threshold_60","module":"certification","threshold":60}
    ]
  }'

预期返回：

{
  "causal_paths": [{"path":["e1","e2","e3","e4"],"risk_weight":0.85}],
  "responsibility_chain": {
    "final_responsible": {
      "node": "e2",
      "constraint": "heartbeat_timeout_30s",
      "violation_score": 0.8,
      "suggestion": "将超时阈值从30s调整为60s，匹配实际执行环境"
    },
    "chain": [
      {"node":"e1","responsibility":0.15,"violated":null},
      {"node":"e2","responsibility":0.60,"violated":"heartbeat_timeout_30s","score":0.8},
      {"node":"e3","responsibility":0.15,"violated":"trust_decay_curve","score":0.1},
      {"node":"e4","responsibility":0.10,"violated":"cert_threshold_60","score":0.05}
    ]
  }
}

公开体验

公开密钥: v19-e5d585e28439decc614f09f91c4caa8c

curl -s https://boat-atlas-spa-flexible.trycloudflare.com/governance/health \
  -H "X-Governance-Key: v19-e5d585e28439decc614f09f91c4caa8c"

自助注册

curl -s -X POST https://boat-atlas-spa-flexible.trycloudflare.com/governance/register \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"agent_name":"你的Agent名称"}'

信任锚点

• 🔗 V19 Trust Manifesto
• 🔗 V19 Certified Agent Workflow
• 🔗 V19 Trust Engine