Development Estimation Skill

Systematic estimation with confidence intervals and risk assessment.

Quick Start

Time estimate with breakdown

/sc:estimate "auth system" --type time --unit days --breakdown

Complexity assessment

/sc:estimate "microservices migration" --type complexity

Effort analysis

/sc:estimate "performance optimization" --type effort --unit hours

Behavioral Flow

• Analyze - Examine scope, complexity, and dependencies

• Calculate - Apply estimation methodology with benchmarks

• Validate - Cross-reference with domain expertise

• Present - Provide breakdown with confidence intervals

• Track - Document for accuracy improvement

Flags

Flag Type Default Description

--type

string time time, effort, complexity

--unit

string days hours, days, weeks

--breakdown

bool false Show detailed breakdown

Personas Activated

• architect - Design complexity assessment

• performance - Optimization effort analysis

• project-manager - Timeline and resource planning

MCP Integration

• PAL MCP - Multi-perspective estimate validation

Evidence Requirements

This skill does NOT require hard evidence. Deliverables are:

• Estimates with confidence intervals

• Risk factor identification

• Breakdown documentation

Estimation Types

Time (--type time )

• Calendar duration estimates

• Milestone planning

• Deadline assessment

Effort (--type effort )

• Person-hours/days required

• Resource allocation guidance

• Team capacity planning

Complexity (--type complexity )

• Technical complexity scoring

• Risk factor identification

• Dependency mapping

Confidence Levels

Estimates include confidence intervals:

• High (85-95%) - Well-understood scope

• Medium (70-84%) - Some unknowns

• Low (50-69%) - Significant uncertainty

Examples

Feature Estimation

/sc:estimate "user authentication" --type time --unit days --breakdown

Breakdown: DB design (2d) + API (3d) + UI (2d) + Tests (1d)

Total: 8 days @ 85% confidence

Complexity Assessment

/sc:estimate "monolith to microservices" --type complexity --breakdown

Architecture complexity with risk factors

Dependency mapping and migration phases

Effort Analysis

/sc:estimate "API performance optimization" --type effort --unit hours

Profiling (4h) + Analysis (6h) + Implementation (16h) + Testing (8h)

Total: 34 hours @ 75% confidence

Tool Coordination

• Read/Grep/Glob - Codebase complexity analysis

• TodoWrite - Estimation breakdown tracking

• Task - Multi-domain estimation delegation

• Bash - Dependency and project analysis