Spillover Estimator

Estimate cross-channel spillover without pretending to prove perfect attribution.

Skill Card

• Category: Measurement
• Core problem: Did growth in one channel also lift another channel?
• Best for: Operators comparing TikTok, Amazon, DTC, creator, paid, and marketplace channel effects
• Expected input: Source channel data + downstream channel data + timing context
• Expected output: Directional spillover estimate + confidence note + action recommendation
• Creatop handoff: Feed findings into budget allocation and channel planning

Before you run

Ask the user to clarify:

• source channel to evaluate
• downstream channel(s) to check for spillover
• date range
• major campaign or promo dates
• whether they have exports, screenshots, or CSV data

If structured data is missing, say the result will be directional, not causal proof.

Optional tools / APIs

Useful but not required:

• Shopify / WooCommerce export
• Amazon sales export
• TikTok Shop export
• ad platform export
• Google Sheets / CSV

If the user does not have APIs connected, ask for manual exports first instead of blocking the workflow.

Workflow

1. Confirm channel scope and time window.
2. Collect source-channel change signals.
3. Collect downstream-channel change signals.
4. Align timing around campaigns, creator drops, content bursts, or promo windows.
5. Judge whether the downstream lift looks:
   • likely related
   • weak / mixed
   • insufficient evidence
6. Explain the estimate with honest caveats.

Output format

Return in this order:

1. Executive summary
2. Spillover estimate
3. Evidence blocks
4. Confidence and caveats
5. Recommended next step

Fallback mode

If the user only has weekly snapshots, rough screenshots, or partial exports:

• use simple directional comparison
• do not claim causal attribution
• clearly label missing data and confidence limits

Quality rules

• Never overclaim causality from timing alone.
• Prefer directional clarity over fake precision.
• Separate channel correlation from verified lift.
• Make the user’s next measurement step obvious.

License

Copyright (c) 2026 Razestar.

This skill is provided under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 for non-commercial use. You may reuse and adapt it with attribution to Razestar, and share derivatives under the same license.

Commercial use requires a separate paid commercial license from Razestar. No trademark rights are granted.