POLAR v1.0 — ETH Alpha Hunter with Position Lifecycle
One asset. Every signal. Maximum conviction. Reload-on-dip.
POLAR stares at ETH and nothing else. Every signal source available — smart money positioning, funding rate, open interest, 4-timeframe trend structure, volume, BTC correlation — feeds into a single thesis: is there a high-conviction ETH trade right now?
Based on GRIZZLY v2.0's three-mode lifecycle, adapted for ETH's volatility profile.
The Three-Mode Lifecycle
MODE 1 — HUNTING (default)
Scan ETH every 3 minutes. All signals must align (4h trend, 1h momentum, SM, funding, OI, volume). Score 10+ to enter. When a position opens, switch to MODE 2.
MODE 2 — RIDING
Active position. DSL High Water trails it. Thesis re-evaluation every scan. If thesis breaks (4h trend flips, SM flips, funding extreme, volume dies, BTC diverges) -> thesis exit and reset to MODE 1. If DSL closes the position -> switch to MODE 3.
MODE 3 — STALKING
DSL locked profits. The trend may not be over. Watch for a reload opportunity. Every scan checks:
Reload conditions (ALL must pass):
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At least one completed 1h candle since exit (~30 min minimum)
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Fresh 5m momentum impulse in the exit direction
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OI stable or growing
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Volume at least 50% of original entry
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Funding not spiked into crowded territory
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SM still aligned in the exit direction
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4h trend structure still intact
If ALL pass -> RELOAD. Re-enter same direction, same leverage. Switch to MODE 2.
Kill conditions (ANY triggers reset to MODE 1):
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4h trend reversed
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SM flipped against exit direction
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OI collapsed 20%+
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Stalking for more than 6 hours with no reload
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Funding spiked above 100% annualized
maxPositions: 1. POLAR holds one ETH position at a time.
MANDATORY: DSL High Water Mode
POLAR MUST use DSL High Water Mode. This is not optional.
DSL tiers in polar-config.json . Arm DSL immediately after every entry fill. Zero naked positions.
Why ETH-Only at 10-15x Leverage
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Second deepest liquidity on Hyperliquid — tight spreads, reliable fills
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Strong SM positioning data — most top traders hold ETH alongside BTC
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High OI concentration — funding rate signals are meaningful
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Structural trends — ETH trends correlate with but don't clone BTC moves
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BTC as leading indicator — when BTC confirms, ETH conviction is highest
How POLAR Trades
Entry (score >= 10 required)
Every 3 minutes, the scanner evaluates ETH across all signal sources:
Signal Points Required?
4h trend structure (higher lows / lower highs) 3 Yes
1h trend agrees with 4h 2 Yes
15m momentum confirms direction 0-1 Yes
5m alignment (all 4 timeframes agree) 1 No
SM aligned with direction 2-3 Hard block if opposing
Funding pays to hold the direction 2 No
Volume above average 1-2 No
OI growing 1 No
BTC confirms move 1 No
RSI has room 1 No (blocks overbought/oversold)
4h momentum strength 1 No
Maximum score: ~18. Minimum to enter: 10.
Conviction-Scaled Leverage
Score Leverage
10-11 12x
12-13 14x
14+ 15x
Conviction-Scaled Margin
Score Margin
10-11 25% of account
12-13 31%
14+ 37%
Risk Management
Rule Value
Max positions 1
Phase 1 floor 3% notional (~45% ROE at 12x)
Drawdown halt 25% from peak
Daily loss limit 10%
Cooldown 120 min after 3 consecutive losses
Stagnation TP 12% ROE stale 90 min
Cron Architecture
Cron Interval Session Purpose
Scanner 3 min isolated Thesis builder + re-evaluator + stalk/reload
DSL v5 3 min isolated High Water Mode trailing stops
Both MUST be isolated sessions with agentTurn . Use NO_REPLY for idle cycles.
Notification Policy
ONLY alert: Position OPENED (direction, leverage, score, reasons), position CLOSED (DSL or thesis exit), risk guardian triggered, critical error. NEVER alert: Scanner found no thesis, thesis re-eval passed, DSL routine, any reasoning.
Bootstrap Gate
On EVERY session, check config/bootstrap-complete.json . If missing:
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Verify Senpi MCP
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Create scanner cron (3 min, isolated) and DSL cron (3 min, isolated)
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Write config/bootstrap-complete.json
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Send: "🐻❄️ POLAR is online. Watching ETH. DSL High Water Mode active. Silence = no conviction."
Expected Behavior
Metric Expected
Trades/day 1-3
Avg hold time 2-24 hours
Win rate ~50-55%
Avg winner 25-60%+ ROE
Avg loser -25 to -45% ROE
Files
File Purpose
scripts/polar-scanner.py
ETH thesis builder + re-evaluator + stalk/reload
scripts/polar_config.py
Shared config, MCP helpers, state I/O
config/polar-config.json
All configurable variables with DSL High Water tiers
License
MIT — Built by Senpi (https://senpi.ai). Source: https://github.com/Senpi-ai/senpi-skills