Prediction Market Watcher

Connects to Kalshi (and Polymarket) to track positions, scan markets, and place bets.

Setup

Kalshi (live trading, US):

• API key + RSA private key required
• Config lives at kalshi-agent/config.json in the workspace
• Key file: kalshi-agent/kalshi.key
• Scripts use kalshi_client.py with RSA-PSS signed requests

Polymarket (coming soon — read-only via public API for now)

Common Tasks

Check portfolio / open positions

cd ~/workspace/kalshi-agent && python3 kalshi_agent.py --status
cd ~/workspace/kalshi-agent && python3 kalshi_agent.py --positions

Check a specific market

from kalshi_client import KalshiClient
import json
c = KalshiClient('KEY_ID', 'kalshi.key')
market = c.get('/trade-api/v2/markets/TICKER_HERE')
print(json.dumps(market, indent=2))

Key fields: yes_bid_dollars, yes_ask_dollars, floor_strike, cap_strike, close_time, rules_primary

Check BTC/crypto price vs bet range

• Fetch live price via web search or Brave API
• Compare against floor_strike / cap_strike from market data
• Settlement uses CF Benchmarks RTI (60s avg before close) — not Coinbase/Google price

Scan for opportunities

cd ~/workspace/kalshi-agent && python3 kalshi_agent.py --scan

Place a bet (manual)

order = c.create_order(ticker="TICKER", side="yes", action="buy", count=N, limit_price=CENTS)

• limit_price is in cents (e.g. 8 = $0.08)
• count = number of $1 contracts
• Always check risk_state.json limits before placing

Settlement reminders

• Use a cron job scheduled ~15 min before close_time
• Message Katie on Telegram with: current price, range, whether we're in/out, time remaining

Risk Rules (from risk.py)

• Max $20/day budget
• Max 5 open positions
• Max single bet: $5 (high confidence), $3 (medium), $1 (low)
• Check can_bet() before any auto-place

API Base URL

https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/

Key endpoints:

• GET /portfolio/positions → open positions (use /trade-api/v2/portfolio/positions)
• GET /markets/{ticker} → single market detail
• GET /markets?status=open&limit=100 → scan markets
• GET /portfolio/balance → balance + portfolio value
• POST /portfolio/orders → place order

See references/kalshi-api.md for full endpoint reference.

Polymarket (read-only)

Public REST API — no auth needed for reads:

GET https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?active=true&limit=20

See references/polymarket-api.md for details.