Polymarket Simmer FastLoop Sync Pulse

A professional-grade quantitative execution skill for Polymarket's 5-minute binary options. Uses a Triple-Trigger strategy combining Binance momentum, NOFX institutional flow, and L2 Wall detection to time entries with high precision.

🌟 Core Strategy: Triple-Trigger Sniper

This skill abandons naïve price-breakout logic. Every trade decision requires three independent confirmations:

1. Momentum & Pin Bar Filter (5m Candles)

Measures the real momentum of the previous closed 5-minute candle on Binance.
Pin Bar Rejection: If the counter-directional wick exceeds max_pin_bar_tail_pct (default 30%) of the full candle range, the signal is blocked as a likely exhaustion trap.
min_momentum_pct defaults to 0.01% — acting as a near-zero-threshold pass-through that relies on the shape filter for quality control.

2. NOFX Institutional Flow (300s Window)

Uses the NOFX API to check the past 300 seconds of Open Interest (OI) and institutional Netflow.
Trend trade: Momentum + OI increasing (> -2%) + net institutional inflow.
Reversion trade: Momentum + OI declining (< +2%) + net institutional outflow.

3. Binance L2 Verified Wall Detection

Scans the Binance L2 order book for large price walls above min_wall_usd (default $1,000,000) up to wall_scan_depth levels deep.
Anti-Spoofing: When a wall is detected, the script waits 1.5s and checks again. Only a wall that survives both checks is considered a real barrier, filtering out high-frequency spoofing.
Usage: Trend trades avoid walls; Reversion trades require a wall to bounce off.

4. Pre-Caching Radar (V8.10 Ignition)

On every run, the script fetches all upcoming market IDs from the Simmer API and saves them to a local fast_markets_cache.json.
At market open, the Simmer API briefly hides the active market. The skill reads from its local cache to execute trades during this "API blackout", ensuring no opportunity is missed.
The local cache ensures execution even on a cold start at the exact moment of market open.

⚙️ Account Setup

Set the following environment variables:

Variable	Required	Description
`SIMMER_API_KEY`	Yes	Your Simmer SDK API key
`WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY`	Optional	Your EVM wallet private key
`AUTOMATON_MAX_BET`	Optional	Override max position size (set by automation platforms)

Without WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY: Runs in simulation mode (paper trading, no real money).
With WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY: Runs in live mode (real USDC on Polymarket).

[!NOTE] Binance and NOFX are free, public APIs — no additional credentials or accounts are required. The skill reads Binance K-line/L2 data and NOFX OI/Netflow anonymously.

[!WARNING] Never share your WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY. The Simmer SDK signs transactions locally — your private key is never transmitted to any server.

🚀 Quick Start

Step 1: Pre-Warm the Cache (Recommended on First Run)

On first launch, run the script once to populate the local market ID cache. You do not need to be near a market window — the script will scan future markets, save them, and exit safely.

python fastloop_improved.py

You should see: [Ignition] Successfully cached X future market IDs.

Step 2: Run the Sniper

# Dry run — analyzes signals but does NOT place orders
python fastloop_improved.py

# Live mode — places real orders
python fastloop_improved.py --live

Note: With no WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY, --live uses Simmer's virtual $SIM balance (paper trading). Real USDC is only used when a private key is configured.

⚙️ All Settings

Setting	Default	Env Var	Description
`min_momentum_pct`	0.01	`SIMMER_SPRINT_MOMENTUM`	Min BTC % move in lookback window
`max_position`	10.0	`SIMMER_MAX_POSITION`	Max USD per trade
`daily_budget`	1000.0	`SIMMER_DAILY_BUDGET`	Max total spend per UTC day
`max_pin_bar_tail_pct`	0.3	`SIMMER_PIN_BAR_MAX`	Max wick ratio to filter Pin Bar noise
`oi_neutral_zone`	2.0	`SIMMER_OI_NEUTRAL`	OI % buffer — changes within ±2% are ignored
`min_wall_usd`	1000000	`SIMMER_MIN_WALL_USD`	Min USD depth to qualify as a wall
`wall_scan_depth`	50	`SIMMER_WALL_SCAN_DEPTH`	Number of L2 order book levels to scan
`require_orderbook`	false	`SIMMER_ORDERBOOK`	Require L2 wall confirmation
`require_funding`	false	`SIMMER_FUNDING`	Require NOFX institutional flow
`fee_buffer`	0.05	`SIMMER_FEE_BUFFER`	Extra edge required above fee breakeven

🆘 Troubleshooting

Symptom	Cause	Action
`No high-conviction signal`	Data signals conflict or no wall found	Normal. The sniper only fires on high-probability setups.
`No tradeable markets found`	No Polymarket market is scheduled in this window	Normal. Cache is being updated. Wait for the next market window.
`Failed to fetch signal data`	Network or API rate limit	Check Binance / NOFX connectivity.
`401 Unauthorized`	Invalid API key	Verify `SIMMER_API_KEY` is set correctly.

🤖 AI Operator Policy

When running this script as an automated agent, interpret outputs as follows:

✅ Success — Ignition: Log contains [Ignition] Successfully cached X future market IDs. Cache is populated. This is a successful run even if no trade fires.

⏳ Normal — Waiting: Log shows No tradeable markets found. This means no market is currently scheduled. The script will find one at the next window.

❌ True Failure: 401 Unauthorized, SyntaxError, AttributeError, or 10+ consecutive [API Delay] messages with no [Ignition] line.

The script's purpose is dual: snipe when conditions are right, and keep the local ID cache fresh at all other times.