Science Milestones & Research Trader

This is a template. The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with probability-extreme detection — remix it with the data sources listed in the Edge Thesis below. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Preprint server velocity signal: arXiv/bioRxiv papers citing breakthrough keywords spike 3–7 days before mainstream coverage, before markets reprice.

Edge Thesis

Scientific breakthrough markets are priced by non-experts following journalist headlines. The actual scientific community publishes on preprint servers 2–4 weeks before journal publication. A high-citation preprint on arXiv predicts a major Nature/Science paper with ~70% accuracy — and Polymarket markets on the underlying topic take 5–10 days to fully reprice after the preprint drops. Nobel Prize markets are uniquely predictable: Thomson Reuters/Clarivate Citation Laureates correctly predicted ~40% of Nobel winners in advance using citation impact data.

Remix Signal Ideas

• arXiv API: https://arxiv.org/help/api/ — New preprint velocity per topic — leading indicator for breakthrough markets
• Clarivate Citation Laureates: https://clarivate.com/the-link/clarivate-citation-laureates/ — Nobel Prize predictions from citation impact analysis
• Semantic Scholar API: https://api.semanticscholar.org/ — Real-time citation graph — detect breakout papers early

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

autostart: false and cron: null — nothing runs automatically until you configure it in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk