Multi-Source LLM Estimator
A prediction market trading bot that enriches an LLM with real-time context from 10+ data sources. It compares the LLM's estimated probability against the current market price and trades when it detects significant mispricing.
How It Works
10+ Data Sources --> Context String --> LLM Prompt --> Probability Estimate
|
Compare vs Market Price
|
Trade if divergence > threshold
- Fetches active markets from Polymarket (via Simmer SDK)
- For each market, gathers real-time context from relevant data sources
- Also checks cross-platform prices on Manifold and Kalshi
- Sends the question + context to an LLM for probability estimation
- If the LLM's estimate diverges from the market price by more than the threshold (default 15%), it places a trade
Data Sources
| # | Source | What It Provides | API Key Required |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RSS News | Headlines from 10 feeds (Reuters, BBC, Bloomberg, etc.) | No |
| 2 | FRED | Economic indicators (Fed rate, CPI, GDP, VIX, oil, gold) | Yes (free) |
| 3 | GDELT | Geopolitical event sentiment scores | No |
| 4 | Odds API | Sports bookmaker consensus probabilities | Yes (free tier) |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | US presidential approval polling averages | No |
| 6 | Congress.gov | Bill status and legislative tracking | Yes (free) |
| 7 | OpenFDA | Drug approval status and clinical trial data | No |
| 8 | Open-Meteo | Weather forecasts for major cities | No |
| 9 | USGS | Significant earthquake data | No |
| 10 | Finnhub | Earnings calendar and IPO data | Yes (free) |
| 11 | Manifold | Cross-platform prediction market prices | No |
| 12 | Kalshi | Cross-platform prediction market prices | No |
Sources are selected automatically based on category detection from the question text. Only relevant sources are queried to minimize latency.
Remixable Template
This skill is designed as a template you can customize:
- Add your own data source: Implement a
_get_X_context(question)function that returns alist[str]of context lines. Add it to_dispatch_sources(). - Swap the LLM: Set
LLM_API_URLandLLM_MODELenv vars to point at any OpenAI-compatible API (OpenRouter, Ollama, vLLM, etc.). - Adjust the threshold: Set
ESTIMATOR_THRESHOLDhigher for fewer but higher-conviction trades, or lower for more frequent trading. - Change the prompt: Edit the
_build_prompt()function to customize the LLM's reasoning style.
Environment Variables
Required
| Variable | Description |
|---|---|
SIMMER_API_KEY | Simmer SDK API key for trading |
LLM_API_KEY | API key for your LLM provider (default: OpenRouter) |
Optional
| Variable | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|
TRADING_VENUE | sim | Trading venue (sim for paper, polymarket for real) |
TRADE_SIZE | 10.0 | Trade size in USD per trade |
LLM_API_URL | OpenRouter endpoint | OpenAI-compatible chat completions URL |
LLM_MODEL | xiaomi/mimo-v2-flash:free | Model identifier |
ESTIMATOR_THRESHOLD | 0.15 | Min divergence to trigger a trade (0.0-1.0) |
FRED_API_KEY | — | FRED API key (free at api.stlouisfed.org) |
ODDS_API_KEY | — | The Odds API key (free at the-odds-api.com) |
CONGRESS_API_KEY | — | Congress.gov API key (free) |
FINNHUB_API_KEY | — | Finnhub API key (free tier) |
LLM_CACHE_TTL | 1800 | LLM response cache TTL in seconds |
LLM_MAX_CALLS | 50 | Max LLM calls per run |
Usage
Dry-run (no trades, just log estimates):
python multi_source_estimator.py
Live trading:
python multi_source_estimator.py --live
Quiet mode (errors only):
python multi_source_estimator.py --live --quiet
Limit markets scanned:
python multi_source_estimator.py --live --max-markets 20
Scheduling
Runs every 5 minutes via cron (*/5 * * * *). Managed automaton (auto-executes on schedule).
Capped at 50 LLM calls per run (LLM_MAX_CALLS) to control costs.
Security
- All trades go through
SimmerClient.trade()only. No direct CLOB or wallet access. - Dry-run by default. The
--liveflag must be explicitly passed to execute trades. - No wallet private keys are required or read by this script.
- LLM receives only the market question text and publicly available context (news headlines, economic indicators, odds). No credentials or private data are sent to the LLM.
LLM_API_URLdefaults to OpenRouter. You control which LLM endpoint is used.- All optional API keys (FRED, Odds, Congress, Finnhub) are for free public data APIs. If unset, those data sources are simply skipped.