Esports & Gaming Trader
This is a template. The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with probability-extreme detection — remix it with the data sources listed in the Edge Thesis below. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
Elo-model win probability vs Polymarket price divergence. Twitch viewership momentum as leading indicator.
Edge Thesis
Esports bracket markets systematically overestimate crowd-favorite teams by 8–18% vs Elo-based models (documented in prediction market research, 2023–2025). Game release date markets are highly accurate 6 months out but get noisy 30 days before — that's when the spread widens and the signal appears. Liquipedia has real-time bracket and match data you can diff against market prices.
Remix Signal Ideas
- Liquipedia API: https://liquipedia.net/commons/Liquipedia:API_documentation — Match results, brackets, team stats for 30+ esports titles
- Steam Charts: https://store.steampowered.com/api/ — Concurrent player peaks as launch signal
- TwitchTracker: https://twitchtracker.com/api — Viewership momentum — 24h spike often precedes market move
Safety & Execution Mode
The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |
|---|---|---|
python trader.py | Paper (sim) | None |
| Cron / automaton | Paper (sim) | None |
python trader.py --live | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |
autostart: false and cron: null — nothing runs automatically until you configure it in Simmer UI.
Required Credentials
| Variable | Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as high-value credential. |
Tunables (Risk Parameters)
All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.
| Variable | Default | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION | See clawhub.json | Max USDC per trade |
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME | See clawhub.json | Min market volume filter |
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD | See clawhub.json | Max bid-ask spread |
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS | See clawhub.json | Min days until resolution |
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS | See clawhub.json | Max concurrent open positions |
Dependency
simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)