Polymarket Edge Trader

Setup

Install the AION SDK:

pip install aion-sdk

This is a template. The default signal is a user-supplied fair YES probability for markets matching MARKET_QUERY. Remix the query, the probability model, or the candidate selection logic. The skill already handles market discovery, dry-run safety, pre-trade context checks, position sizing, operator summaries, and AION trade tagging.

What It Does

• Scans active AION Polymarket markets matching MARKET_QUERY
• Scores each candidate against MODEL_PROBABILITY
• Picks the market with the largest absolute edge
• Skips trades when edge is too small, slippage is too high, briefing risk alerts are active, or AION warns about flip-flopping
• Sizes the position with a Kelly-style bankroll model
• Prints an operator summary with risk state, decisions, and order updates
• Executes through AionMarketClient.trade() when you explicitly provide --live and a signed order payload

Defaults

• MARKET_QUERY=bitcoin
• MODEL_PROBABILITY=0.60
• TARGET_VENUE=polymarket
• MAX_MARKETS=25
• MAX_STAKE_USD=50
• MIN_EDGE=0.03
• MAX_SLIPPAGE_PCT=0.15
• STARTING_BALANCE_USD=1000
• AION_BASE_URL=https://pm-t1.bxingupdate.com/bvapi
• AION_KELLY_MULTIPLIER=0.25
• AION_MIN_EV=0.03
• WALLET_ADDRESS=
• AION_SIGNED_ORDER_JSON=

How To Run

Dry-run is the default:

python edge_trader.py

Trade a different query with a custom fair probability:

python edge_trader.py --query "fed" --probability 0.64

Live trading requires an explicit live flag, a wallet address, and a pre-signed order payload:

WALLET_ADDRESS=0xYourWallet \
AION_SIGNED_ORDER_JSON='{"maker":"...","signer":"...","taker":"0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000","tokenId":"...","makerAmount":"...","takerAmount":"...","side":"BUY","expiration":"...","signature":"...","salt":"...","signatureType":0,"nonce":"...","feeRateBps":"0"}' \
python edge_trader.py --query "bitcoin" --probability 0.58 --live

Required Credentials

• AION_API_KEY is always required
• WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY is optional and only needed for self-custody Polymarket trading
• WALLET_ADDRESS is required for user-scoped briefing and live order submission
• AION_SIGNED_ORDER_JSON is only required for live order submission, because the AION SDK expects a complete signed order payload

Remix Ideas

• Replace MODEL_PROBABILITY with your own model output or external API
• Swap discover_markets() for briefing.opportunityMarkets or another shortlist source
• Generate the signed order JSON from your own order builder or wallet flow before calling --live
• Add sell logic or rebalance logic around existing positions
• Tighten or relax the context filters for a higher-frequency strategy