Numinous Forecast

This skill calls the Numinous forecasting API and returns a calibrated probability (p \in [0,1]) plus metadata/provenance.

Note: requests are paid per-call via x402 (HTTP 402 → pay → retry). You’ll need a wallet key configured (see setup).

Setup

Install Python deps (recommended: uv).

EVM-only (recommended):

uv pip install "x402[httpx,evm]"

If you also want Solana payments:

uv pip install "x402[httpx,evm,svm]"

Set the buyer key (required):

NUMINOUS_X402_EVM_PRIVATE_KEY: EVM key (0x…) for Base / EVM payments

Optional (Solana payments):

NUMINOUS_X402_SVM_PRIVATE_KEY: Solana key (base58) for Solana payments

Optional:

NUMINOUS_X402_PREFER: auto (default) | evm | svm

Security note: these are private keys. Treat them like cash. Don’t paste them into chats/logs.

Predict (query mode)

python3 "{baseDir}/predict_query.py" "Will BTC be above $100k by 2026-12-31?"
python3 "{baseDir}/predict_query.py" "Will Team X win League Y in 2026?" --topics sports

Predict (event mode)

python3 "{baseDir}/predict_event.py" \
  --title "Will BTC be above $100k by 2026-12-31?" \
  --description "Resolve YES if BTC/USD spot price is strictly above $100,000 at 2026-12-31 23:59:59 UTC." \
  --cutoff "2026-12-31T23:59:59Z" \
  --topics general

Output

Both scripts print JSON with these top-level fields:

ok: true|false
prediction: probability (p \in [0, 1])
forecasted_at: ISO timestamp (UTC)
forecaster_name: forecaster identifier
metadata: provenance/debug context (see below)
parsed_fields: query mode only — structured event parsed from your query (see below)
error: null on success; otherwise an error string

`metadata` (common keys)

pool: aggregation pool name
miner_uid: miner UID chosen for this forecast
miner_hotkey: miner hotkey identifier
reasoning: model reasoning / explanation text
agent_name: which forecaster agent produced the result
version_id: model/version identifier
version_number: integer version
raw_prediction: original prediction value before any formatting
event_title: resolved event title
event_cutoff: resolved cutoff timestamp (UTC)

`parsed_fields` (query mode only)

title: resolved event title
description: resolution criteria / event description
cutoff: ISO cutoff (often ends with Z)
topics: list of topic tags