marsedge-probboard

Query and summarize the MarsEdge probability board for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP 5-minute up/down signals. Use when the user asks for current probability board status, a quick board summary, the strongest coin, model-vs-market edge, Polymarket bid/ask comparison, short probability snapshots, or simple watchlist-style observations from marsedge.vip.

MarsEdge ProbBoard

Overview

Use this skill to read the live MarsEdge board and turn it into a concise trading-style summary.

The board is not for long essays. Default to a short, desk-style answer:

strongest symbol(s)
model up/down probability
Polymarket bid/ask context
where model and market seem misaligned
obvious caveats when data is stale or missing

Quick Start

Run the bundled fetch script first:

node /root/.openclaw/workspace/skills/marsedge-probboard/scripts/fetch-board.mjs

Optional base URL override:

node /root/.openclaw/workspace/skills/marsedge-probboard/scripts/fetch-board.mjs https://marsedge.vip

The script calls:

GET /api/probboard/latest

and returns compact JSON for the board.

Workflow

1. Fetch the board

Always fetch fresh board data before answering live-state questions.

If the API is unavailable, say so plainly and stop guessing.

2. Check freshness

Use updatedAt, ts, ttl, and rem_secs as sanity checks.

If data looks stale, say it is stale.

3. Rank what matters

Focus on:

highest conviction probabilities
biggest model vs market mismatches
symbols with low remaining time when timing matters

Do not pretend tiny differences are meaningful.

4. Answer in trader format

Prefer a compact structure like:

Strongest up: BTC 62.4%
Strongest down: XRP 58.1%
Possible edge: ETH up model 57% vs market ask 0.49
Caution: SOL data is stale / countdown is low

Edge Heuristic

Read references/edge-rules.md when the user asks for edge, opportunity, best coin, strongest setup, or a ranked summary.

Default interpretation:

model up probability materially above market up ask → possible up-side value
model down probability materially above market down ask → possible down-side value
tiny differences are noise, not edge

Output Style

Default to:

short bullets
direct numbers
no fake certainty
no table unless explicitly useful

Good example:

当前盘面里最顺的是 BTC。
- BTC up 概率 61.8%，up ask 0.54，模型略偏多
- XRP down 概率更高，但盘口也不便宜，edge 没 BTC 干净
- SOL 剩余时间太短，别过度解读

Resources

scripts/

scripts/fetch-board.mjs — fetch MarsEdge live board JSON

references/

references/edge-rules.md — concise heuristics for reading model-vs-market mismatch