Pipeline Forecasting
B2B sales forecasting frameworks and deal scoring models.
Forecast Categories
Category Definition Weight
Commit Will close this period 90%
Best Case High probability, some risk 70%
Pipeline Working, outcome uncertain 30%
Upside Long shot, possible 10%
Weighted Pipeline
Weighted Pipeline = Σ (Deal Value × Stage Probability × Confidence)
Example: $100K deal in Proposal (40%) with High confidence (1.1x) = $100K × 0.4 × 1.1 = $44K weighted
Forecast Accuracy Metrics
Metric Formula Target
Forecast Accuracy Actual / Forecast 90-110%
Commit Accuracy Commit Closed / Commit Forecast
85%
Best Case Accuracy BC Closed / BC Forecast
60%
Pipeline Accuracy Pipeline Closed / Pipeline Forecast
25%
Weekly Forecast Review Template
FORECAST REVIEW: [Date]
Commit: $[X] ([Y] deals)
- [Deal 1]: $X - [Status/Risk]
- [Deal 2]: $X - [Status/Risk]
Best Case: $[X] ([Y] deals)
- [Deal 1]: $X - [What needs to happen]
Pipeline: $[X] ([Y] deals)
- At risk: [List]
- Upside: [List]
Total Weighted: $[X] vs. Target: $[X] Gap: $[X]
Actions This Week:
- [Specific action on deal]
- [Specific action on deal]
Deal Scoring Model
Score Components
Factor Weight Scoring
ICP Fit 20% 3=Perfect, 2=Good, 1=Marginal, 0=Off
Champion 25% 3=Active, 2=Supportive, 1=Identified, 0=None
Authority 20% 3=Buyer engaged, 2=Identified, 1=Unknown, 0=Blocked
Need 15% 3=Urgent, 2=Important, 1=Nice-to-have, 0=None
Timeline 10% 3=This quarter, 2=Next quarter, 1=This year, 0=None
Competition 10% 3=None/weak, 2=Incumbent, 1=Strong, 0=Losing
Score Interpretation
-
85-100%: High confidence commit
-
70-84%: Best case
-
50-69%: Standard pipeline
-
<50%: At risk, qualify harder