Project Estimation

Overview

Use this skill to create realistic estimates that expose uncertainty and sequencing risk instead of false precision.

Scope Boundaries

• Use this skill when the task matches the trigger condition described in description.
• Do not use this skill when the primary task falls outside this skill's domain.

Shared References

• Estimation calibration rules:
  • references/estimation-calibration-rules.md

Templates And Assets

• Estimation breakdown template:
  • assets/estimation-breakdown-template.csv
• Uncertainty register template:
  • assets/uncertainty-register-template.md

Inputs To Gather

• Scope definition and dependency graph.
• Team capacity and delivery constraints.
• Historical delivery data for calibration.
• Risk factors and assumption volatility.

Deliverables

• Work breakdown with range estimates.
• Uncertainty/risk register with owners.
• Sequencing recommendation and confidence level.

Workflow

1. Create breakdown in assets/estimation-breakdown-template.csv.
2. Calibrate ranges with references/estimation-calibration-rules.md.
3. Track assumptions and risks in assets/uncertainty-register-template.md.
4. Review dependencies and critical path sensitivity.
5. Publish estimate with confidence and update policy.

Quality Standard

• Estimates include explicit uncertainty ranges.
• Dependencies and assumptions are visible and owned.
• Calibration uses historical evidence when available.

Failure Conditions

• Stop when estimates hide assumptions or uncertainty.
• Stop when dependencies are ignored in schedule confidence.
• Escalate when estimation risk blocks planning decisions.