Kalshi Crypto Momentum Trader
This is a template.
The default signal uses static 7d/30d momentum parameters -- remix it with live price API feeds, multiple timeframes, or volume-weighted momentum.
The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Strategy Overview
Crypto markets on Kalshi price year-end targets. Price momentum (7d/30d trends) is a strong predictor of whether targets will be reached. This skill extrapolates recent price trends to compute probability that each target is hit by year-end.
Signal Logic
Momentum Trend Model
- Compute 7-day and 30-day price change ratios for BTC/ETH
- Extrapolate current trend to year-end using exponential projection
- Compute probability of reaching each price target under trend assumption
- Compare model probability to Kalshi market price
- Trade when
|model - market| >= entry_edge
Remix Ideas
- Live price API: CoinGecko/Binance for real-time trend computation
- Multiple timeframe ensemble: 1d, 7d, 30d, 90d momentum signals
- Volume-weighted momentum: Higher conviction when volume confirms
- Mean-reversion overlay: Dampen extreme trend signals
Risk Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Entry edge | 10% | Min model-vs-market divergence to trade |
| Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this |
| Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market |
| Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting |
| Max slippage | 15% | Skip if slippage exceeds |
| Min liquidity | $0 | Disabled by default |
Installation & Setup
clawhub install kalshi-crypto-momentum-trader
Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.
Cron Schedule
Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.
Safety & Execution Mode
The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |
|---|---|---|
python trader.py | Dry run | None |
| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |
python trader.py --live | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |
The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.
Required Credentials
| Variable | Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |
SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |
Tunables (Risk Parameters)
| Variable | Default | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_ENTRY_EDGE | 0.10 | Min divergence to trigger trade |
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_EXIT_THRESHOLD | 0.45 | Sell position when price reaches this level |
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_MAX_POSITION_USD | 5.00 | Max USDC per trade |
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN | 3 | Max trades per execution cycle |
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_SLIPPAGE_MAX | 0.15 | Max slippage before skipping |
SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_MIN_LIQUIDITY | 0 | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |
Dependency
simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.
- PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
- GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
- Publisher: hello@simmer.markets
Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.