Kalshi Prediction Markets

Read-only integration with Kalshi's prediction market API.

Capabilities

• Browse markets: List active events and markets by category
• Market analysis: Get prices, volumes, orderbook depth
• Portfolio view: Check positions and P&L (requires API key)
• Trade recommendations: Find high-certainty, high-payoff opportunities

Setup

Install dependencies:

pip install requests cryptography

For portfolio access (RSA key signing required):

1. Go to kalshi.com/account/profile
2. Create new API key → save the Key ID and download the private key
3. Store credentials:

mkdir -p ~/.kalshi
mv ~/Downloads/your-key-file.txt ~/.kalshi/private_key.pem
chmod 600 ~/.kalshi/private_key.pem

4. Create ~/.kalshi/credentials.json:

{
  "api_key_id": "your-key-id-here",
  "private_key_path": "~/.kalshi/private_key.pem"
}

Or run interactive setup:

python scripts/kalshi_portfolio.py setup

Scripts

Market Data (No Auth Required)

# List trending markets
python scripts/kalshi_markets.py trending

# Search markets by query
python scripts/kalshi_markets.py search "bitcoin"

# Get specific market details
python scripts/kalshi_markets.py market TICKER

# Find high-value opportunities
python scripts/kalshi_markets.py opportunities

Portfolio (Auth Required)

# View positions
python scripts/kalshi_portfolio.py positions

# View balance
python scripts/kalshi_portfolio.py balance

# Trade history
python scripts/kalshi_portfolio.py history

Opportunity Analysis

The opportunities command identifies markets where:

• High certainty: Price ≥85¢ YES or ≤15¢ YES (implies 85%+ confidence)
• Meaningful payoff: Potential return ≥10% on capital
• Sufficient liquidity: Orderbook depth supports reasonable position size

Formula: expected_value = probability * payoff - (1 - probability) * cost

A good opportunity has: EV / cost > 0.1 (10%+ expected return)

Categories

Kalshi markets span:

• Politics & Elections
• Economics (Fed rates, inflation, GDP)
• Weather & Climate
• Finance (stock prices, crypto)
• Entertainment & Sports
• Science & Tech

API Reference

See references/api.md for endpoint details.

Important Notes

• This skill is READ-ONLY — no trade execution
• Public endpoints don't require authentication
• Portfolio/balance requires API credentials
• Markets settle in cents (100¢ = $1)
• All times in UTC