XAUUSD LLM Scalping Analysis

Skill for small account scalping with tight stop losses (~5 points / $5).

Philosophy

You ARE the analyst. Your PRIMARY decision tool is price structure — where price is relative to support, resistance, swing points, and key levels.

Indicators (RSI, MACD, Stoch, etc.) are context only — they confirm or deny what structure is telling you. Never take a trade purely because an indicator says so. Structure first, indicators second, TradingView rating last.

Your priority stack:

1. Price structure (where is price relative to levels?)
2. Candle patterns (rejection wicks, engulfing, momentum)
3. Indicator confluence (do RSI/MACD/Stoch agree with structure?)
4. TradingView signal rating (treat as a secondary opinion, not gospel)

Quick Start - Fetch Data

1. Real-time price + indicators (TradingView - NO DELAY)

bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_price.sh

Returns live price, current candle OHLC, RSI, MACD, Stoch, ADX, CCI, EMA, BB, ATR on 5m/15m/1h timeframes. Use for current snapshot and indicator context.

2. Real-time candle history (Twelve Data - NO DELAY)

# Requires: export TWELVE_DATA_API_KEY="your_key"
# Get free key: https://twelvedata.com (800 requests/day, free forever)

# 5-minute candles (primary for scalping)
bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 5min 30

# 15-minute candles (for trend/structure)
bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 15min 20

# 1-minute candles (for micro entries)
bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 1min 40

Returns last N candles with OHLC — real-time, no delay. Use for structure analysis: swing highs/lows, support/resistance, patterns.

Intervals: 1min, 5min, 15min, 30min, 1h, 4h, 1day

3. Fallback candle history (Yahoo Finance - ~15-20min delay, NO key needed)

bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_gold.sh 5m 1d 50

Only use if Twelve Data key is not set. Data is delayed ~15-20 minutes.

Analysis Workflow

1. Run fetch_price.sh → get live price + indicators snapshot
2. Run fetch_candles.sh 5min 30 → get real-time candle structure (swing points, patterns)
3. Optionally run fetch_candles.sh 15min 20 → for higher timeframe trend
4. Analyze → structure first, indicators as context
5. Output signal → with checklist, levels, and probabilities

Scalping Analysis Framework (5-Point Stop Loss)

1. IDENTIFY MICRO STRUCTURE

With only 5 points of risk, you need PRECISE entries:

• Find the immediate swing high/low (last 5-10 candles)
• Identify micro support/resistance levels
• Look for tight consolidation ranges (< 10 points)

2. ENTRY TIMING CRITERIA

Only signal when:

• Price is AT a clear level (not in the middle of a range)
• Recent candle shows rejection wick or engulfing pattern
• Stop loss placement is LOGICAL (behind structure, not arbitrary)

3. CALCULATE EXACT LEVELS

For every signal, specify:

Entry: [exact price]
Stop Loss: [entry ± 5 points]
Take Profit: [minimum 1:1.5 R:R = 7.5 points]

4. MOMENTUM CHECK

On 5m chart, confirm:

• Last 3-5 candles show directional bias
• No major wick rejections against your direction
• Volume/candle size increasing in your direction

5. EXTREME INDICATOR READINGS (High-Probability Triggers)

These extreme readings often precede reversals — use them as entry confirmations:

When multiple indicators are extreme simultaneously, bounce probability increases significantly.

Example from real session: Stoch K hit 7.2 with CCI at -92 → price bounced 12+ points.

Hard "NO TRADE" Gates

Before generating any signal, check these. Gates marked HARD = must skip. Gates marked SOFT = warn but can still trade.

HARD Gate 1: Volatility Filter

• If 5m ATR > 8 points → SKIP (your 5-point SL is noise in this volatility)
• If 15m ATR > 20 points → SKIP (market too wild for scalping)

HARD Gate 2: News Event Filter

Do NOT trade during or 15 minutes before/after these events:

• US: CPI, NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls), FOMC rate decisions, PCE, PPI
• Global: ECB/BOE/BOJ rate decisions, geopolitical shocks
• Gold can move 30-50+ points in seconds during these events. A 5-point SL is meaningless.

If you're unsure whether a news event is happening, add a warning: "Check economic calendar before entering."

HARD Gate 3: Script Failure

• If fetch_price.sh returns an error or "Market may be closed" → NO TRADE
• If data looks stale (price hasn't changed in multiple fetches) → NO TRADE

SOFT Gate 4: Spread/Slippage Cost Awareness

Gold spread is typically 2-3 points, plus ~1 point slippage on entries.

Your REAL risk per trade:

Effective SL = 5 (your SL) + 2-3 (spread) + 1 (slippage) = 8-9 points total cost
Effective TP1 = 5 (your TP) - 2-3 (spread) = 2-3 points net gain
Effective TP2 = 10 (your TP) - 2-3 (spread) = 7-8 points net gain

Always mention this in your analysis, but still suggest the trade if structure looks good.

HARD Gate 5: Rollover Period (21:00-22:00 UTC)

• DO NOT TRADE during 21:00-22:00 UTC (daily rollover/swap time)
• Stop hunts are extremely common during this window — market makers sweep liquidity before the new session
• If you must trade during rollover, use minimum 8-point SL (not 5) to survive the wicks
• This gate was upgraded from SOFT to HARD based on real session experience where two consecutive 5-pt SLs were hunted during rollover

SOFT Gate 6: Session Timing

• Best: London-NY overlap (13:00-17:00 UTC) — tightest spreads, best liquidity
• OK: London session (08:00-12:00 UTC), NY session (13:00-21:00 UTC)
• Warn but allow: Asian session (wider spreads, note it)

Signal Output Format

## XAUUSD SCALP SIGNAL

**Action**: 🟢 BUY (Long) / 🔴 SELL (Short) / ⚪ NO TRADE
**Confidence**: [High / Medium / Low]

### Levels
- Current Price: $XXXX.XX
- Entry Zone: $XXXX.XX - $XXXX.XX
- Stop Loss: $XXXX.XX (5 points risk)
- Take Profit 1: $XXXX.XX (+5 points)
- Take Profit 2: $XXXX.XX (+10 points)

### Win Probability & Scenarios

**IMPORTANT**: These probabilities are HEURISTIC — educated guesses based on structure, not statistical models. Be honest but not paralyzed.

**Probability guidelines**:
- Use ranges: "35-45%", not "42%"
- Cap at 70% max for any single outcome
- If SL probability > TP1 probability by a wide margin → SKIP
- If everything is 33/33/33 → lean toward the direction momentum supports

Estimate how likely each outcome is based on the current structure:

| Scenario | Target | Gross Pts | Net After Spread (~3pts) | Est. Probability |
|----------|--------|-----------|--------------------------|-----------------|
| SL Hit | $XXXX | -5 | -8 (SL + spread + slip) | XX-XX% |
| TP1 Hit | $XXXX | +5 | +2 to +3 | XX-XX% |
| TP2 Hit | $XXXX | +10 | +7 to +8 | XX-XX% |

**Expected Value (cost-adjusted)**:
- TP1 play: (TP1% x net_TP1) - (SL% x net_SL) = $X.XX
- TP2 play: (TP2% x net_TP2) - (SL% x net_SL) = $X.XX

**Verdict**: [WORTH TAKING / MARGINAL / SKIP]

The goal is to help the user DECIDE, not to block all trades. If a setup has any structural edge at all, present it with honest probabilities and let the user judge.

### Pre-Signal Checklist

Answer these. Flag any "No" items as risks, but still suggest the trade if the overall picture has an edge.

| # | Check | Answer |
|---|-------|--------|
| 1 | Is price near a clear level? | Yes/No |
| 2 | Is 5m ATR reasonable (≤ 8)? | Yes/No |
| 3 | Is there a candle pattern or momentum confirming? | Yes/No |
| 4 | Does higher timeframe direction agree? | Yes/No |
| 5 | Is SL behind some structure? | Yes/No |
| 6 | No major news event right now? | Yes/No |

**Trade if**: Majority are "Yes" and #2 + #6 pass. Flag any "No" as a risk factor.

### Structure Analysis
[What micro structure you see - support/resistance, swing points]

### Entry Trigger
[Specific condition to enter - e.g., "break above 5032", "rejection candle at 5025"]

### Reasoning
[2-3 sentences on why this setup works]

### Risk Warning
This is LLM-based analysis for testing only. Not financial advice.

What to Look For (5m Chart)

🟢 BUY (Long) Setups

1. Support Bounce: Price touches recent low, forms rejection wick up
2. Breakout Pullback: Breaks resistance, pulls back to retest, holds
3. Higher Low: Creates higher low after swing up, momentum continuing
4. Stop Hunt Reversal (High Probability): Price makes a sharp wick that sweeps previous lows by 3-5+ pts, then V-recovers. Enter LONG after candle closes back above the swept level. SL below wick (6-8 pts). Key signal: Stochastic K < 10 during wick = extreme oversold, high bounce probability.

🔴 SELL (Short) Setups

1. Resistance Rejection: Price hits recent high, rejection wick down
2. Breakdown Retest: Breaks support, pulls back to retest, rejected
3. Lower High: Creates lower high after swing down, momentum continuing
4. Stop Hunt Reversal (High Probability): Price makes a sharp wick that sweeps previous highs by 3-5+ pts, then V-reverses down. Enter SHORT after candle closes back below the swept level. SL above wick (6-8 pts). Key signal: Stochastic K > 90 during wick = extreme overbought.

⚪ NO TRADE Conditions

• Price in middle of range (no clear level nearby)
• Choppy/whipsaw action (alternating direction candles)
• Wide spread candles (volatility too high)
• Near session open/close (unpredictable)

Example Analysis Process

1. Fetch real-time indicators:

bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_price.sh

2. Fetch real-time candle history (for structure):

bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 5min 30

3. Analyze: Use candles to find swing points, support/resistance. Use indicators to confirm direction. Apply the Analysis Framework.

4. Generate signal with exact levels based on live price

Multi-Timeframe (Optional)

For higher confidence, fetch multiple timeframes:

bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_price.sh
bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 15min 20
bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 5min 30

Rule: Only take 5m signals that ALIGN with 15m direction.

Important Notes

1. LLM is NOT predictive - You are doing opinionated pattern reading, not forecasting. Scalping with tight SLs has high failure rates even among experienced human traders.
2. Small account = strict risk - Never risk more than 1-2% of account per trade
3. 5 points is TIGHT - After spread+slippage, your real risk is ~8 points. Be extremely selective — most of the time the correct signal is NO TRADE.
4. Spread eats your edge - With ~3pt spread, your TP1 of +5pts nets only +2-3pts. You need high win rates or bigger TP2 plays.
5. Session timing - Best: London-NY overlap (13:00-17:00 UTC). Avoid Asian session and rollover.
6. News kills scalpers - A single CPI print can move gold 40 points in 1 second. Check calendar.
7. This is experimental - For paper trading and learning ONLY until you have evidence it works.

Trade Management (Once in a Position)

Breakeven Rule

• When trade reaches +2.5 to +3 pts profit, move SL to breakeven (entry price)
• This creates a "risk-free" trade — worst case you exit at 0, not -5
• Especially important after experiencing stop hunts earlier in the session

Trailing Stop Option

• After hitting +5 pts, consider trailing SL to +2 pts (lock in some profit)
• Or hold for TP2 with breakeven SL if momentum is strong

Session Loss Limit

• After 2 consecutive losses (-10 pts total), STOP trading for the session
• Emotional state after losses leads to revenge trading and poor decisions
• Exception: If you identify a clear stop hunt reversal pattern, one more attempt is acceptable with WIDER SL (6-8 pts instead of 5)

Recovery After Losses

• If you continue after losses, widen your SL to 6-8 pts
• Stop hunts often come in clusters during low-liquidity periods
• Accept that you're trading with worse R:R but better survival odds

Trading Experience Log

Use this section as a running journal. Each time the user asks, append a new entry based on the actual trade outcome.

How to log each trade

For every completed trade, add one block using this template:

### Trade #N - YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM UTC
- Session: [London / NY / Overlap / Asian]
- Direction: [BUY / SELL]
- Setup Type: [Support Bounce / Resistance Rejection / Breakout Pullback / Stop Hunt Reversal / Other]
- Entry: [price]
- Stop Loss: [price] (5 points)
- TP1 / TP2: [price] / [price]
- Outcome: [TP1 / TP2 / SL / Manual Exit]
- Net Result (points): [+X / -X]
- Key Context: [ATR, spread estimate, news status, market condition]
- What Worked: [1-2 bullets]
- What Failed: [1-2 bullets]
- Lesson: [single sentence]

Weekly review (every 10-20 trades)

After enough entries, add a summary block:

### Weekly Review - YYYY-MM-DD
- Total Trades: X
- Wins: X | Losses: X | Win Rate: XX%
- Avg Win (pts): X.X | Avg Loss (pts): X.X
- Best Setup Type: [name + stats]
- Worst Setup Type: [name + stats]
- Most Common Mistake: [one line]
- Rule Adjustment: [one concrete rule to keep/change]

Rule: Experience log is for factual outcomes and lessons only. Do not rewrite past entries.

Setup

1. Get a free Twelve Data API key: https://twelvedata.com/pricing (10 seconds, free forever, 800 req/day)
2. Set it: export TWELVE_DATA_API_KEY="your_key"
3. Test: bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 5min 10

File Structure

xauusd-trading/
├── SKILL.md              # This file
└── scripts/
    ├── fetch_price.sh    # REAL-TIME price + indicators (TradingView, no key)
    ├── fetch_candles.sh  # REAL-TIME candle history (Twelve Data, free key)
    └── fetch_gold.sh     # Fallback candles (Yahoo Finance, delayed, no key)

Continuous Monitoring Mode

When asked to monitor XAUUSD for scalping opportunities, use this workflow:

Monitor Loop Execution Rules (CRITICAL)

This is an INFINITE loop. You MUST continue until user explicitly says "stop", "exit", or "pause".

HARD RULES:

• After NEUTRAL, WATCHING, or CONSOLIDATING → execute sleep → immediately fetch new data
• Do NOT say "let me know if you want me to continue" — just continue
• Do NOT rationalize stopping ("market seems quiet", "no setup forming") — keep monitoring
• Only stop on: SIGNAL state, user command, or HARD gate failure (market closed, script error)

After user responds to SIGNAL:

• User enters → switch to 30-second active trade monitoring
• User skips → resume normal monitoring loop with sleep

Monitor Loop

1. Load this skill for all analysis
2. Fetch data — you MUST run BOTH scripts every cycle:

   # REQUIRED: Run these in parallel every monitoring cycle
   bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_price.sh
   bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 5min 15
   

   • fetch_price.sh → indicators (RSI, MACD, Stoch, ATR, etc.)
   • fetch_candles.sh → structure (swing highs/lows, support/resistance, patterns)
   • DO NOT skip candles — indicators alone cannot identify structure levels
   • Every 3-5 cycles, also fetch 15m candles for trend context:

     bash /home/hazeruno/.config/opencode/skill/xauusd-trading/scripts/fetch_candles.sh 15min 10
     

3. Analyze and determine state (structure first, indicators as confirmation)
4. Wait based on state, then repeat

Wait Discipline (Important)

When monitoring continuously, you MUST actually pause between cycles using sleep.

• WATCHING (1 minute):

  sleep 60
  

• NEUTRAL (2 minutes):

  sleep 120
  

• CONSOLIDATING (3 minutes):

  # Some tool environments time out at 120s.
  # If so, split into two waits:
  sleep 90
  # run fetch scripts
  sleep 90
  

Rule: Do not run back-to-back fetches without waiting unless the user explicitly says "check now" or "new candle now".

Adaptive Intervals

Detecting CONSOLIDATING State

Switch to CONSOLIDATING when ALL of these are true:

1. Tight range: Last 3-5 candles have total range < 5 points (highs and lows compressed)
2. Flat MACD: Histogram near zero (between -0.10 and +0.10)
3. No breakout: Price not testing key support/resistance (stuck in middle)
4. Low momentum: CCI between -30 and +30, or Mom indicator flat

Why this matters: Checking every minute during consolidation wastes API calls and adds no value. Wait for the range to break, then switch back to WATCHING.

Exit CONSOLIDATING: When price breaks out of the range OR volatility expands (ATR increases, MACD histogram expands)

State Transitions

• NEUTRAL → WATCHING: Price approaches support/resistance, or indicators reach extreme zones
• NEUTRAL → CONSOLIDATING: Price enters tight range with no momentum
• WATCHING → SIGNAL: Entry trigger confirmed (rejection wick, breakout, stop hunt reversal)
• WATCHING → NEUTRAL: Price moves away from level without triggering
• WATCHING → CONSOLIDATING: Price stalls at level, forms tight range instead of breaking
• CONSOLIDATING → WATCHING: Range breaks, price moves toward key level
• CONSOLIDATING → SIGNAL: Breakout with momentum confirms entry
• SIGNAL → User decides to enter or skip

On SIGNAL

Output the full signal format (see Signal Output Format above) and ask user whether to enter.

On Active Trade

When user enters a position:

• Switch to 30-second monitoring intervals
• Track P&L, distance to SL/TP
• Alert on key levels (+2.5 pts for breakeven move, approaching TP, approaching SL)
• Continue until trade closes