Estimate Analysis Skill

Deep-dives into analyst estimates and revision trends using Yahoo Finance data via yfinance. Covers EPS and revenue estimate distributions, revision momentum, growth projections, and multi-period comparisons — the full picture of where the street thinks a company is heading.

Important: Data is for research and educational purposes only. Not financial advice. yfinance is not affiliated with Yahoo, Inc.

Step 1: Ensure yfinance Is Available

Current environment status:

!python3 -c "import yfinance; print('yfinance ' + yfinance.__version__ + ' installed')" 2>/dev/null || echo "YFINANCE_NOT_INSTALLED"

If YFINANCE_NOT_INSTALLED , install it:

import subprocess, sys subprocess.check_call([sys.executable, "-m", "pip", "install", "-q", "yfinance"])

If already installed, skip to the next step.

Step 2: Identify the Ticker and Gather Estimate Data

Extract the ticker from the user's request. Fetch all estimate-related data in one script.

import yfinance as yf import pandas as pd

ticker = yf.Ticker("AAPL") # replace with actual ticker

--- Estimate data ---

earnings_est = ticker.earnings_estimate # EPS estimates by period revenue_est = ticker.revenue_estimate # Revenue estimates by period eps_trend = ticker.eps_trend # EPS estimate changes over time eps_revisions = ticker.eps_revisions # Up/down revision counts growth_est = ticker.growth_estimates # Growth rate estimates

--- Historical context ---

earnings_hist = ticker.earnings_history # Track record info = ticker.info # Company basics quarterly_income = ticker.quarterly_income_stmt # Recent actuals

What each data source provides

Data Source What It Shows Why It Matters

earnings_estimate

Current EPS consensus by period (0q, +1q, 0y, +1y) The estimate levels — what analysts expect

revenue_estimate

Current revenue consensus by period Top-line expectations

eps_trend

How the EPS estimate has changed (7d, 30d, 60d, 90d ago) Revision direction — rising or falling expectations

eps_revisions

Count of upward vs downward revisions (7d, 30d) Revision breadth — are most analysts raising or cutting?

growth_estimates

Growth rate estimates vs peers and sector Relative positioning

earnings_history

Actual vs estimated for last 4 quarters Calibration — how good are these estimates historically?

Step 3: Route Based on User Intent

The user might want different levels of analysis. Route accordingly:

User Request Focus Area Key Sections

General estimate analysis Full analysis All sections

"How have estimates changed" Revision trends EPS Trend + Revisions

"What are analysts expecting" Current consensus Estimate overview

"Growth estimates" Growth projections Growth Estimates

"Bull vs bear case" Estimate range High/low spread analysis

Compare estimates across periods Multi-period Period comparison table

When in doubt, provide the full analysis — more context is better.

Step 4: Build the Estimate Analysis

Section 1: Estimate Overview

Present the current consensus for all available periods from earnings_estimate and revenue_estimate :

EPS Estimates:

Period Consensus Low High Range Width

Analysts

YoY Growth

Current Qtr (0q) $1.42 $1.35 $1.50 $0.15 (10.6%) 28 +12.7%

Next Qtr (+1q) $1.58 $1.48 $1.68 $0.20 (12.7%) 25 +8.3%

Current Year (0y) $6.70 $6.50 $6.95 $0.45 (6.7%) 30 +10.2%

Next Year (+1y) $7.45 $7.10 $7.85 $0.75 (10.1%) 28 +11.2%

Revenue Estimates:

Period Consensus Low High

Analysts

YoY Growth

Current Qtr $94.3B $92.1B $96.8B 25 +5.4%

Next Qtr $102.1B $99.5B $105.0B 22 +6.1%

Calculate and flag:

• Range width as % of consensus — wide ranges (>15%) signal high uncertainty

• Analyst coverage — fewer than 5 analysts means thin coverage, note this

• Growth trajectory — is growth accelerating or decelerating across periods?

Section 2: Revision Trends (EPS Trend)

This is often the most actionable section. From eps_trend , show how estimates have moved:

Period Current 7 Days Ago 30 Days Ago 60 Days Ago 90 Days Ago

Current Qtr $1.42 $1.41 $1.40 $1.38 $1.35

Next Qtr $1.58 $1.57 $1.56 $1.55 $1.54

Current Year $6.70 $6.68 $6.65 $6.58 $6.50

Next Year $7.45 $7.43 $7.40 $7.35 $7.28

Summarize the trend: "Current quarter EPS estimates have risen 5.2% over the last 90 days, with most of the increase in the last 30 days — accelerating upward revision momentum."

Key interpretation:

• Rising estimates ahead of earnings = positive setup (the bar is rising)

• Falling estimates = analysts cutting numbers, often a negative signal

• Flat estimates = no new information being priced in

• Recent acceleration/deceleration matters more than the total move

Section 3: Revision Breadth (EPS Revisions)

From eps_revisions , show the up vs. down count:

Period Up (last 7d) Down (last 7d) Up (last 30d) Down (last 30d)

Current Qtr 5 1 12 3

Next Qtr 3 2 8 5

Calculate a revision ratio: Up / (Up + Down). Ratios above 0.7 are strongly bullish; below 0.3 are bearish.

Section 4: Growth Estimates

From growth_estimates , compare the company's expected growth to benchmarks:

Entity Current Qtr Next Qtr Current Year Next Year Past 5Y Annual

AAPL +12.7% +8.3% +10.2% +11.2% +14.5%

Industry +9.1% +7.0% +8.5% +9.0% —

Sector +11.3% +8.8% +10.0% +10.5% —

S&P 500 +7.5% +6.2% +8.0% +8.5% —

Highlight whether the company is expected to grow faster or slower than its peers.

Section 5: Historical Estimate Accuracy

From earnings_history , assess how reliable estimates have been:

Quarter Estimate Actual Surprise % Direction

Q3 2024 $1.35 $1.40 +3.7% Beat

Q2 2024 $1.30 $1.33 +2.3% Beat

Q1 2024 $1.52 $1.53 +0.7% Beat

Q4 2023 $2.10 $2.18 +3.8% Beat

Calculate:

• Beat rate: X of 4 quarters

• Average surprise: magnitude and direction

• Trend in surprise: Are beats getting bigger or smaller? A shrinking surprise with rising estimates could mean the bar is catching up to reality.

Step 5: Synthesize and Respond

Present the analysis with clear structure:

Lead with the key insight: "AAPL estimates are trending higher across all periods, with positive revision breadth (80% of recent revisions are upward)."

Show the tables for each section the user cares about

Provide interpretive context:

• Is the revision trend confirming or contradicting the stock's recent price action?

• How does the growth outlook compare to what's priced into the current P/E?

• What's the relationship between estimate accuracy history and current estimate levels?

Flag risks and nuances:

• Estimates cluster around consensus — the "real" distribution of outcomes is wider than low/high suggests

• Revision momentum can reverse quickly on a single data point (guidance change, macro event)

• Yahoo Finance estimates may lag behind real-time consensus providers by hours or days

• Growth estimates for out-years (+1y) are inherently less reliable

Caveats to always include

• Analyst estimates reflect a consensus view, not certainty

• Estimate revisions are a signal but not a guarantee of future performance

• This is not financial advice

Reference Files

• references/api_reference.md — Detailed yfinance API reference for all estimate-related methods

Read the reference file when you need exact return formats or edge case handling.