Geopolitics Expert
Analyzes armed conflicts through integrated frameworks to assess war duration, economic impact, and termination scenarios.
Usage
geopolitics-expert <news_url>
The skill fetches the news URL and produces a structured analysis with five outputs.
Workflow
Step 1: Fetch and Parse News Content
Use web_fetch to extract article content from the provided URL.
Step 2: Apply Analytical Frameworks
Analyze the conflict using these integrated frameworks (stored in references/):
- Strategic Gravity — forever war vs short war indicators
- Modern Doctrines — US intervention triggers and target selection
- Five Pathways — conflict termination scenarios
- Perpetual Quagmire — forever war risk factors
- IRGCistan — post-theocratic military state dynamics
- Hormuz Siege — chokepoint weaponization patterns
- Reopening Blueprints — strategic options for de-escalation
Step 3: Generate Structured Output
Produce analysis in this exact format:
## 1. Conclusion
[Core assessment of the conflict situation]
## 2. Economic/Commodity Impact
[Effects on oil, gas, fertilizers, supply chains, inflation]
## 3. Commodity Trading Odds
[Assessment of trading opportunities: long/short positions, risk factors]
## 4. War Duration Categorization
- **Short-term war probability**: X%
- **Long-term/forever war probability**: Y%
- **Key indicators**: [list specific factors from Strategic Gravity framework]
## 5. Termination Scenarios
[Summary of which pathways could end this conflict, ranked by likelihood]
Framework Reference
Read references/frameworks.md for detailed analytical models when complex conflicts require deeper assessment.
Output Guidelines
- Be decisive — provide clear probabilities, not vague ranges
- Anchor to frameworks — cite specific indicators from the loaded models
- Economic focus — always tie back to commodity impacts (oil, gas, fertilizer, shipping)
- Scenario-ranked — order termination scenarios by probability, not alphabetically