Forecasting Techniques
Metadata
- Name: forecasting
- Description: Quantitative and qualitative forecasting methods
- Triggers: forecast, projection, prediction, demand planning, trend analysis
Instructions
Apply appropriate forecasting techniques for $ARGUMENTS.
Framework
Forecasting Methods
| Method | Best For | Time Horizon | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moving Average | Stable demand | Short | Medium |
| Exponential Smoothing | Trending data | Short-Medium | High |
| Regression | Causal relationships | Medium-Long | High |
| Scenario Planning | Uncertain environment | Long | Medium |
| Delphi Method | Expert consensus | Long | Medium |
Output
## Forecast: [Subject]
### Method Selection
**Chosen Method**: [Method name]
**Rationale**: [Why this method]
### Historical Data
| Period | Actual | Forecast | Error |
|--------|--------|----------|-------|
| Q1 | 100 | - | - |
| Q2 | 110 | 105 | +5 |
| Q3 | 115 | 112 | +3 |
| Q4 | 120 | 118 | +2 |
### Forecast Results
| Period | Forecast | Lower Bound | Upper Bound | Confidence |
|--------|----------|-------------|-------------|------------|
| Q1 Next | 125 | 118 | 132 | 90% |
| Q2 Next | 130 | 120 | 140 | 85% |
| Q3 Next | 135 | 122 | 148 | 80% |
### Assumptions
1. [Assumption 1]
2. [Assumption 2]
3. [Assumption 3]
### Risks
| Risk | Probability | Impact | Mitigation |
|------|-------------|--------|------------|
| [Risk 1] | Medium | High | [Action] |
| [Risk 2] | Low | Medium | [Action] |
Tips
- Use multiple methods for validation
- Document assumptions clearly
- Update forecasts with new data
- Consider seasonality