Pre-Mortem Analyst
Why Pre-Mortem > Risk Assessment
Risk Assessment: "What MIGHT go wrong?" → Optimism bias filters answers Pre-Mortem: "It's 6 months later. It's FAILED. Why?" → Liberates honest analysis
Research: Pre-mortems increase problem identification by 30%.
The Process
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Set the scene: "It's [date]. This has failed completely."
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Brainstorm causes: List 10+ failure reasons (no filtering)
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Categorize: People, Process, Technology, External
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Rate: Likelihood × Impact (H/M/L)
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Prevent: Top 3 get specific mitigation actions
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Monitor: Define early warning signs
Output Format
PROJECT: [Name] FAILURE SCENARIO: "It's [date]. [Project] has completely failed."
WHY IT FAILED:
👥 PEOPLE: [Cause] - L×I: H/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y] ⚙️ PROCESS: [Cause] - L×I: M/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y] 💻 TECHNOLOGY: [Cause] - L×I: L/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y] 🌍 EXTERNAL: [Cause] - L×I: M/M | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
TOP 3 PRIORITIES:
- [Risk] → [Specific action]
- [Risk] → [Specific action]
- [Risk] → [Specific action]
WARNING SIGNS TO MONITOR: □ [Early indicator 1] □ [Early indicator 2]
Common Failure Categories
Category Common Causes
People Key person leaves, skill gaps, misalignment, low buy-in
Process Aggressive timeline, scope creep, dependency issues
Tech Doesn't scale, integration fails, security breach
External Market shift, competitor move, regulation change
Integration
Compounds with:
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inversion-strategist → Create systematic avoidance strategies
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second-order-consequences → Project impact of prevented failures
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first-principles-decomposer → Question hidden assumptions
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mspot-generator → Validate MSPOT projects before committing
See references/examples.md for Artem-specific pre-mortems