Assumption Test Planner

Purpose

Help a user identify and test the riskiest assumptions behind a plan before they commit more time, money, reputation, or energy.

When to Use This Skill

Use this skill when the user has a plan, proposal, product idea, career move, purchase, project, or personal change and wants to validate whether the plan deserves commitment.

Common user language includes:

• "What assumptions am I making?"
• "How do I test this idea before committing?"
• "What could make this plan fail?"
• "I need an assumption testing template."
• "What is the smallest safe experiment?"

Do not use this skill primarily to choose between options. Use it to test the beliefs that make a plan risky or uncertain.

Inputs to Gather

Ask for enough context to rank assumptions and design safe tests.

• Plan or decision in one sentence.
• What success would mean and by when.
• Current evidence, facts, opinions, and guesses.
• Main constraints: time, budget, skills, access, stakeholders, tools, policy, or environment.
• Resources already committed and what remains reversible.
• Potential downsides if the assumption is wrong.
• High-stakes domains that may require professional review.

Workflow

1. State the plan or decision in one sentence and define success in observable terms.
2. List assumptions the plan depends on, including demand, cost, time, ability, stakeholder support, behavior, constraints, and timing.
3. Separate facts already known from guesses, hopes, opinions, anecdotes, and borrowed advice.
4. Score each assumption by importance, uncertainty, reversibility, and cost if wrong.
5. Rank the assumptions that should be tested before committing more resources.
6. Design one lightweight test for each top assumption, such as an interview, prototype, quote, trial run, checklist, benchmark, waitlist, small purchase, or time-boxed pilot.
7. Define evidence thresholds for pass, fail, or inconclusive results.
8. State what decision changes if each test passes or fails.
9. Output a 7 to 14 day validation plan and a decision checkpoint.

Safety Boundary

This skill supports planning and uncertainty reduction. It does not replace legal, medical, financial, tax, engineering, employment, child safety, housing, immigration, or other professional review. It does not encourage deceptive experiments, manipulation, unsafe tests, or collecting private data without informed consent. For high-stakes assumptions, recommend qualified expert input before action.

Deliverable Format

Return the deliverable in this structure:

Plan Summary

Plan or decision:

Success definition:

Deadline or commitment point:

Assumption Register

Use a table or bullet list with these fields:

• Assumption
• Type: demand, cost, time, ability, stakeholder, behavior, constraint, timing, or other
• Current evidence
• Importance score: low, medium, or high
• Uncertainty score: low, medium, or high
• Cost if wrong: low, medium, or high
• Reversibility: easy, moderate, or hard
• Priority rank

Test Plan

For each top assumption, provide:

• Fastest safe test
• Needed resources
• Evidence threshold for pass, fail, or inconclusive
• Decision impact
• Risk or ethics note

7 to 14 Day Validation Plan

Create a short dated or sequenced plan with a final checkpoint and next decision.