Weather Betting

Use NOAA weather forecasts to find edge on Polymarket weather markets.

Commands

/weather scan Scan all weather markets for edge /weather forecast <city> Get NOAA forecast for a city /weather markets List active weather markets /weather edge <market-id> Calculate edge for specific market /weather bet <market-id> <amount> Execute bet /weather auto [--threshold 10] Auto-bet on high-edge markets /weather history View bet history

Examples

/weather forecast "New York" /weather scan /weather edge abc123 /weather bet abc123 10 /weather auto --threshold 15

How It Works

• Fetch NOAA Forecast: Get official NWS weather data (free, no API key)

• Match to Markets: Find Polymarket weather markets for the same location/date

• Calculate Edge: Compare NOAA probability to market YES price

• Bet if Edge: If NOAA probability differs significantly from market, bet

Edge Calculation

Edge = NOAA Probability - Market Price

Example: NOAA says 80% chance of rain in NYC tomorrow Polymarket "Will it rain in NYC?" YES price: 0.65 (65%) Edge = 80% - 65% = +15% -> Bet YES

Supported Market Types

• Temperature: "Will NYC exceed 90°F on Saturday?"

• Precipitation: "Will it rain in LA tomorrow?"

• Snow: "Will Chicago get 6+ inches of snow?"

• Record: "Will Phoenix hit a record high this week?"

Confidence Levels

• High: Edge >= 15%, reliable forecast data

• Medium: Edge 10-15%, some uncertainty

• Low: Edge 5-10%, more speculative

Position Sizing

Uses quarter-Kelly criterion for conservative sizing:

Bet Size = Bankroll * (Edge / Odds) * 0.25

Capped at 10% of bankroll per bet.

Supported Cities

Major US cities including: New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, Dallas, San Jose, Austin, Jacksonville, San Francisco, Seattle, Denver, Washington DC, Boston, Nashville, Detroit, and more.