Risk Management

Last updated: 2026-03-09 20:08 UTC Active patterns: 54 Total samples: 8500 Confidence threshold: 60%

Core Principles

These rules are derived from analyzing profitable vs losing trades:

Rule Success Rate Samples Confidence Seen

Trade frequency inversely correlates wit... 95% 473 50% 1x

When ALL 5 tracked assets are positive o... 95% 58 45% 1x

Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... 92% 183 90% 1x

Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... 92% 200 95% 1x

Cap trade frequency at 10 trades/24h max... 90% 84 45% 1x

Closing LONG positions quickly to pivot ... 88% 50 95% 1x

Trade frequency must be inversely propor... 88% 109 45% 1x

Multi-timeframe bearish alignment (15m, ... 88% 383 99% 2x

In uniformly bearish markets, 'low-sever... 85% 49 85% 1x

Validation checks passing ('validation p... 85% 200 95% 1x

High trade frequency (189-200 trades/24h... 85% 389 95% 1x

When ALL 5 tracked assets are positive o... 85% 113 95% 1x

Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... 80% 49 85% 1x

Self-reflective position management (jou... 80% 48 80% 1x

Forum/social sentiment filtering provide... 80% 24 95% 1x

Closing SHORT positions 'to lock in gain... 78% 48 85% 1x

Low leverage (2x) on SHORT positions wit... 75% 48 85% 1x

Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... 75% 172 90% 1x

Low trade frequency (<40 trades/24h) pre... 75% 48 95% 1x

In uniformly bearish markets, SHORT-bias... 75% 3 41% 1x

Avoid momentum-following strategies in m... 75% 33 95% 1x

Self-reflective position management (rec... 75% 27 95% 1x

Contrarian strategies underperform in mi... 70% 16 82% 1x

Cap trade frequency at 15 trades/24h max... 70% 113 95% 1x

Cap trade frequency at 16 trades/24h max... 67% 86 65% 1x

In mixed/low-volatility markets (daily m... 67% 146 95% 1x

Self-reflective position management (jou... 65% 65 45% 1x

Multi-timeframe bearish alignment (15m, ... 50% 337 90% 1x

High trade frequency (165-172 trades/24h... 50% 337 90% 1x

High trade frequency (183 trades/24h) ca... 50% 366 90% 1x

In uniformly bearish markets with mild d... 50% 6 57% 1x

Validation checks passing ('all checks p... 41% 998 94% 2x

Closing positions due to 'conflicting ti... 35% 20 80% 1x

Trade frequency inversely correlates wit... 33% 86 65% 1x

Cutting small losses quickly (-$0.14 to ... 30% 131 90% 1x

Cutting small losses quickly (-$38 on SO... 30% 147 95% 1x

Contrarian LONG entries in bullish marke... 30% 6 62% 1x

Closing positions 'to reduce concentrati... 30% 708 99% 3x

Closing positions 'to reduce concentrati... 25% 165 90% 1x

Validation checks passing ('all checks p... 25% 501 95% 1x

High concentration warnings (127% of equ... 25% 166 95% 1x

Multi-timeframe alignment (15m, 1h, 4h) ... 15% 298 50% 1x

Low trade frequency (<20 trades/24h) in ... 15% 25 95% 1x

Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... 15% 166 95% 1x

2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio con... 15% 58 45% 1x

2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio FAI... 10% 31 95% 1x

Cutting small losses quickly (-$0.01 to ... 5% 152 90% 1x

Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2... 0% 334 50% 1x

High leverage (4x-5x) with 'optimal' ris... 0% 132 50% 1x

Self-reflective position management (jou... 0% 62 65% 1x

Low-frequency LONG entries in a bearish ... 0% 4 43% 1x

Contrarian LONG entries in uniformly bea... 0% 9 53% 1x

Skill-aware validation frameworks (2% eq... 0% 27 90% 1x

Contrarian LONG entries in bearish marke... 0% 11 67% 1x

Top Risk Rules

Trade frequency inversely correlates with performance in bullish markets: 8 trades = $0.00, 30-34 trades = -$46 to -$51, 120-166 trades = -$41 to -$135

• Success rate: 95%

• Based on 473 observations

• Confidence: 50% (seen 1 times)

• First identified: 2026-01-28

When ALL 5 tracked assets are positive over 24h with gains exceeding +5%, immediately halt ALL SHORT entries regardless of any lower-timeframe signals, validation checks, or risk calculators.

• Success rate: 95%

• Based on 58 observations

• Confidence: 45% (seen 1 times)

• First identified: 2026-03-04

Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio SUCCEEDS when agent maintains SHORT bias in bearish markets and uses validation to confirm market direction alignment.

• Success rate: 92%

• Based on 183 observations

• Confidence: 90% (seen 1 times)

• First identified: 2026-01-31

Position sizing at 2% equity risk with 2:1 reward ratio SUCCEEDS when market direction aligns with position bias and agent maintains high trade frequency (150-200/24h).

• Success rate: 92%

• Based on 200 observations

• Confidence: 95% (seen 1 times)

• First identified: 2026-02-01

Cap trade frequency at 10 trades/24h maximum in strongly bullish markets when agent directional bias is uncertain. qwen35_skill_aware's 7 trades (+$250.52) vs gptoss_agentic's 28 trades (-$435.19).

• Success rate: 90%

• Based on 84 observations

• Confidence: 45% (seen 1 times)

• First identified: 2026-03-04

General Guidelines

• Never risk more than 2% of equity on a single trade

• Use stop-losses on every position

• Reduce position size in high volatility regimes

• Don't add to losing positions

Confidence Guide

Confidence Interpretation

90%+ High confidence - strong historical support

70-90% Moderate confidence - use with other signals

60-70% Low confidence - consider as one input

<60% Experimental - needs more data

This skill is automatically generated and updated by the Observer Agent.